Have you ever wondered how climate change will impact our ability to grow food? (Part 2)

Some of our tomato plants

When I told my children the topic of this blog, their chorus of responses: “boring.” Of course, they’re kids. Admittedly, climate change has never been my favorite topic either. It’s not because I find it boring though. It’s because the general topic of climate change can seem distant at times, like it’s happening someplace else. It can also be overwhelming. I mean, it is GLOBAL climate change, which is an unfathomable scale when viewed from a personal level. The task of finding ways that I can make a difference can feel daunting.

There are some effects of climate change that resonate more personally for me. I don’t just mean suffering through the more frequently occurring high heat days with no air conditioning, although that does stink. I’m referring partly to my love for our local ecosystems and the potential impact climate change will have on them, but that will be a topic of a future blog post. I’m also referring to my fondness for nurturing plants and gardening. Growing our own fruits, vegetables, flowers, and herbs is a tradition in our family, and I’m concerned about the influence climate change will have on our food supply and our own ability to grow food regionally.

            In part 1 of the blog post, we talked about what climate change is. In this post, we will focus of how climate change could potentially disrupt our food supply. Crop production, whether it be agriculture or your home vegetable garden, is weather sensitive. Growing food crops is influenced by the region’s climate and aspects of the climate such as temperature, precipitation, and frosts. Agriculture and climate change are also linked. Some agricultural practices release greenhouse gasses, which contribute to global climate change. Agricultural production is, or will be, impacted by climate change, which is brought on largely by the release of greenhouse gasses. There are ways to help though. For example, farmers and ranchers can make a difference by reducing methane production.

Factors that influence the magnitude at which climate change may affect agriculture and crop production:

A.    Rate of the change in weather patterns – How quickly are the climate conditions changing in a particular area.

B.    Severity of the climate change – Are the changes to the local climate relatively mild, or is the region experiencing more frequently occurring intense weather events, for example?

C.     Ability of farmers, ranchers, and gardeners to adapt to and mitigate the threats brought on by climate change– Do the producers have the resources and knowledge to cope with the climate changes in their region?

D.    How climate change will affect the availability of land – An example is areas where arable land is being lost to rising sea levels or extreme drought. One could also add in the rapid loss of farmland to development, and the challenges of purchasing land for crop production. As currently farmed land may become difficult to farm due to changes in weather patterns and precipitation in the future, there may be a shift in where farmers can successfully grow crops (or at least certain crops). The loss of fertile farmland to development and the high costs associated with purchasing farmland may lead to a deficit in availability of land to grow crops.

DISCLAIMER: You’ll notice I list the points as Pros and Cons. That’s because I was running into some positive aspects as I was researching for this article. However, it seems the cons far outnumber the pros. Also, most articles pointed out that the benefits brought on by climate change oftentimes came with negative consequence. Still, I believe in presenting information from a broad viewpoint so that you can make up your mind based on the information provided (and your own research).  

Climate change indicators. Ways we may see climate change present itself:

A.    Lengthening of growing seasons – This can change which crops can be grown in certain regions.

1.     Pro: Some farmers may be able to grow crops that require longer growing seasons. An example is Alaska. There is a possibility agriculture could expand in Alaska through the increased growing seasons associated with climate change.

2.     Pro: Some farmers may be able to produce more crops per growing season.

3.     Con: The changing conditions may also come with dryer, hotter seasons that may reduce moisture in soil, which may require more irrigation.

4.     Con: May come with increased air pollution that can be damaging to crops and other plant life.

B.    Changes in regional temperatures and precipitation

1.     Pro: In some areas with a typically colder climate, climate change may bring a longer, warmer growing season that will be beneficial for production of certain crops.

2.     Con: Increased risk of wildfires due to hotter, dryer conditions, which can damage farmlands.

Striped cucumber beetle

3.     Con: Will likely increase the range of insects, invasive plants, and diseases, which will also increase the weed and insect pressure on farm crops.

4.     Con: Warmer winters and wetter conditions can increase the survival of parasites and pathogens that would normally be kept at bay by cold winter weather and dryer conditions.

5.     Con: The pollinator-plant bloom time synchronization could be affected. If the pollinators emerge at a different time than the flowers they pollinate, this could affect crop production.

6.     Con: Heat stress will affect the animals that produce our milk, eggs, and meat, and warming aquatic conditions can decrease productivity in fisheries.

7.     Con: Hotter conditions and drier soils can increase heat stress in plants, which can result in loss of crops.

8.     Con: prolonged extreme heat can sunburn crops, which will reduce yields and unmarketable fruits.

9.     Con: Sometimes what seems like a good thing also comes with a consequence: The lengthened growing seasons due to warmer temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns could mean a deficit in water availability during the peak growing months. Again, this could reduce crop yields.

C.     Soil and water – It is predicted that the incidences of heavier rainstorms may increase as a result of climate change.

1.     Con: Can harm crops through soil erosion

2.     Con: Can lead to depletion of nutrients in soil through erosion

3.     Con: Runoff of soils and nutrients can contaminate natural water sources and lower water quality

4.     Con: Warmer water temperatures along with pollution through runoff can create conditions that lead to hypoxia in bodies of water. Hypoxia kills aquatic organisms because it depletes the oxygen levels in the water.

5.     Con: Like what is happening in our oceans, freshwater is also acidifying

6.     Con: Floodwaters contaminate the edible portions of crops resulting in a disease risk. The harvest will then have to be discarded for safety reasons.

7. Con: Rising sea levels can increase erosion, lead to a loss of land, contaminate water supplies, etc.

D.    Health risks and agriculture due to climate change

1.     Con: Greater chance of exposure to heat or extreme weather events

2.     Con: Increased dependence on pest control methods with intensification of pest pressures means greater chances of exposure to pesticides and herbicides

3.     Con: Weather changes such as higher temperatures and more precipitation can lead to larger occurrences of ticks and mosquitos

4.     Con: Health issues associated with degraded air quality

5.     Con: Rise in sickness related to working conditions with higher heat and humidity

Potential impacts of climate change on those who grow food crops and to our food supply:

A.    Food insecurity may increase on a global scale. How this may look:

Increase in global temps and sea levels >> leads to >> increase in weather related events (heat waves, droughts, floods, severe weather events, wildfires, and damage to infrastructure through extreme weather events) >> causes >> challenging growing conditions for farmers, loss of crops, and disruption in the food supply chains >> results in >> Hunger and food scarcity (U.S. Mission Italy, 2022)

B.    Increased health risks may impact migrant workers

C.     Increase in challenging work conditions due to the increased heat, decrease in air quality, and extreme weather events.

D.    The additional challenges brought on by dealing with climate change (loss of crops, death of livestock,  water shortages …) make it harder for farmers and ranchers to make a living.

E.     In some parts of the world, farm families are having to leave their farms to find new work because farming has become too difficult to sustain. You can read more from Heifer International here. 

F.     Food becomes less nutrient dense. The increase in CO2 is expected to stimulate plant growth, but it is also predicted to reduce protein and mineral content of foods resulting in lower nutritional content. This NPR article explains how crops are losing nutrients.

How this affects you and me:

            Obviously, there is the potential for a reduction in our future food availability and for increased food prices at the store. If you are a gardener growing at least some of your own food, or a homesteader who may be much more dependent on growing your own food, these same climate conditions that affect agricultural production will also affect your crop yields. A scarcity in commercial food production could also lead to the dependency on our ability to grow our own foods.

Some way you can adapt to the changing climate by adding resiliency to your farm or garden are: (Future posts will focus more in depth on each of these growing methods)

High tunnel at one of the mentor farms

A.    Implementing crop rotation

B.    Using no-till/low-till farming/growing practices

C.     Practicing integrated pest management

D.    Planting cover crops

E.     Intercropping

F.     Evaporative cooling stations – overhead micro-sprinklers

G.    Using high tunnels

H.    Using mesh coverings and shade cloth

I.      “Dry Farming” – planting crops that need less rainfall or irrigation

J.      Using climate forecasting tools to make crop choice decisions

 How you can help:

A.    Employ the crop production techniques to better adapt to climate change that are listed above in your home gardens.

B.    Look for ways you can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One way you can make a difference is to reduce food waste in your home.

C.     Look for ways to reduce runoff in your home landscape.

D.    In general, make more conscious decisions to care for our earth.

If you would like to read more about how climate change may threaten our future food chain, these resources below can be a good starting point.

Resources

United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). (June 2024). Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural and Food Supply. https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply#:~:text=Climate%20change%20is%20expected%20to,soil%20and%20depleting%20soil%20nutrients.&text=Heavy%20rains%20can%20also%20increase,oceans%2C%20lakes%2C%20and%20streams. Accessed June 13, 2024.

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Northwest Farms. USDA Climate Hubs. https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northwest/topic/economic-impact-climate-change-northwest-farms. Accessed June 27, 2024.

U.S. Mission Italy. (October 2022). How Climate Change Affects the Food Crisis. United States Embassy & Consulates in Italy.  https://it.usembassy.gov/how-climate-change-affects-the-food-crisis/ Accessed June 28, 2024.

Chandlear, M. (March 2023). How Does Climate Change Affect Agriculture? Heifer International. https://www.heifer.org/blog/how-climate-change-affects-agriculture.html Accessed June 28, 2024.

Mirzabaev, A., Kerr, R. B., Hasegawa, T., Pradhan, P., Wreford, A., Tirado von der Pahlen, M. C., Gurney-Smith, H. (2023). Severe climate change risks to food security and nutrition. Science Direct, Climate Risk Management. 23. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096322000808 . Accessed June 30, 2024.

Gies, E. (January 2018). Like Oceans, Freshwater is also acidifying. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/like-oceans-freshwater-is-also-acidifying/#:~:text=Scientists%20have%20known%20for%20some,causing%20ocean%20creatures%20like%20shellfish. Accessed July 1, 2024.

Kennedy, M. (2018) As Carbon Dioxide Levels Rise, Major Crops Are Losing Nutrients. National Public Radio (NPR). https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/06/19/616098095/as-carbon-dioxide-levels-rise-major-crops-are-losing-nutrients. Accessed July 1, 2024.

Herring, D. (October 2020). Are there positive benefits from global warming? National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Climate.gov. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/are-there-positive-benefits-global-warming. Accessed July 4, 2024.  

Coffman, D. & Ness, R. (April 2021). Will Canada benefit from climate change? Answering that questions should consider both side of the ledger. Canadian Climate Institute.   https://climateinstitute.ca/will-canada-benefit-from-climate-change/ Accessed July 4, 2024.