Have you ever wondered how climate change will impact our ability to grow food? (Part 1)

Crop production - image taken during my farm internship

We’ve all heard of global climate change and global warming, and these topics are appearing in news and social media feeds with increased frequency. In my previous career as a botanist at a natural history museum, we had discussed our role as members of the scientific community in monitoring global climate change and ways in which the museum collections could be utilized for that purpose. I also learned that our local ecosystems are shifting due to the changes in regional climate and weather. This hit home for me. Having worked extensively in our northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania ecosystems, I’ve grown to love our native habitats. It saddens me to think of how the warming temperatures may transform the composition of our beautiful forests, for example.

It wasn’t until I was taking an introductory class in Sustainable Agriculture that I even thought about how changes in local climate and weather patterns will impact our ability to grow food. The scientist in me was captivated by the studies we were reading for my class. The researchers had attempted to predict the future climate conditions of the study area. Then, they designed a way to mimic those expected future growing conditions so they could gather data on how targeted plant species responded to the new environment. As someone who enjoys growing my own food and having food readily available to myself and my family, I’m apprehensive about how climate change may impact food production and regional availability. I feel it’s prudent to study the influence of climate change on growing crops in our local climates in Ohio so we can best prepare ourselves to cope with the changes to come.

What is Climate Change and how does it differ from Global Warming?

            There are several terms used in reference to the topic of global climate change that I would like to define: weather, climate, global warming, and global climate change.

            Weather – Weather refers to the state of the atmosphere of a region in the short term. Variables that influence weather include the temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, and cloud cover conditions. We experience rain or snow, the humidity or dryness of an area, etc. on any given day because of the current atmospheric conditions.

My kids playing in rain

            Climate – The climate of a region is the culmination of that areas weather patterns over years and decades. Regional climate is an average of the typical weather, seasonal variations, average temperatures, etc., that characterize that area’s long-term climate profile.

            Global Warming – The term global warming was first used in 1975 (NASA, n.d.), and it refers to the results greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere are having on the Earth’s surface temperatures. Our planet’s average surface temperature has increased due to the rising levels of greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere.

            Global Climate Change – This term denotes the shift in the Earth’s climate and average weather patterns observed over the long-term as a consequence of human activities. The key words here being “long-term.”

Prior to the 1975 article that coined the term global warming, scientists were calling the observed human induced effects on weather patterns “inadvertent climate modification.” (NASA, n.d.) At the time, scientist didn’t yet know if human activities would result in warming or cooling of the Earth’s climate. This is because scientists realized the aerosols given off through Industrial emissions could have a cooling effect. Because the aerosol pollutants remain suspended in the air for only a short period while greenhouse gasses like CO2 persist in the atmosphere for centuries, it became apparent that the greenhouse gasses would have a more significant impact.

            The terms global warming and global climate change are connected. The various articles I read point out that climate change is driven by global warming, but the term climate change is preferred over global warming is because it more specifically encompasses what is occurring on our planet. It’s not that global warming is incorrect. It’s that global warming is more the cause while global climate change refers to the rippling effects of global warming. This is important because humans and the living things that we share the planet with will likely be more noticeably affected by the effects of global climate change.

            When scientists first began to realize our activities could have a lasting impact on our world, they began monitoring to see exactly how events would play out. The previous explanation of how we went from calling the changes “inadvertent climate modification” to global warming, to the more specific global climate change illustrates how scientists are using gathered evidence to pull together a better picture of what is happening to our planet. It’s that documentation of information and patterns over long periods of time that is revealing what we ourselves may not be seeing in our day to day lives. While we may not notice the changes as we go about our everyday lives, scientists studying climate change are actively analyzing current and historic weather patterns and climate data to view a larger picture. The information indicates the changes are more dramatic than we may realize and are occurring at a rapid and widespread rate when viewed from the broader time frame of the Earth, rather than our human perspectives of time.

How it works:

1.     Greenhouse gas emissions released through human activities are the major driving force behind the rapid increase in global temperatures. Greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere act as insulation by trapping heat nearer to the plant’s surface and preventing its release back into space. This insulating effect disrupts the balance in energy received from the sun and released from the Earth resulting in the rise in the Earth surface temperature.

2.     Main greenhouse gasses: Methane, Nitrous Oxide, and Carbon Dioxide.

3.     What we know: the Earth’s surface is warmer by an average of ½ degrees Celsius

Major contributors to climate change:

1.     Some fluctuations in the Earth’s climate are due to natural causes such as:

a.     Activity of the sun. The sun’s activities are a driving force for the Earth climate and its systems, and variations in the amount of energy released from the sun influence climate conditions on our planet. However, scientists have not seen the dramatic increase in solar energy that would be necessary to account for the rapid increase in warming that’s happening.

b.     Very large volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions do release a large amount of carbon dioxide into the Earth’s atmosphere, but the about of CO2  given off during an eruption is small in comparison to how much of the greenhouse gas is produced by humans. Additionally, the large amounts of particulate matter spewed into the atmosphere can cool the Earth’s climate by blocking solar radiation before it reaches the Earth’s surface.

c.     Variations in the Earth’s orbit – Small variations in the Earth’s orbit alter the amount of solar energy that is received on the planet’s surface. The closer the planet is to the sun, the warmer the climate. Conversely, the farther the Earth is from the sun, the cooler the climate.

d.     Cyclical ocean patterns (El Nino, La Nina, Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Ocean currents help to regulate the global climate through the transport of warmer waters from the equator to the poles and vice versa. The flow of the currents distributes heat and moisture around the globe and influences weather patterns.

2.     Human activity as a driver of rapid climate change through:

a.     Burning of fossil fuels, including gasoline and coal, which produce greenhouse gasses.

b.     Agriculture accounts for about 10% of the US greenhouse gas production.

c.     Cutting down our forests release much of the carbon that was stored in the trees back into the atmosphere.

d.     Food waste not only wastes the resources that went into producing the food, but it also contributes to methane gas production as the food rots in landfills.

Consequences of climate change to the planet:

1.     Rising temperatures is a worldwide concern. The Earth is an interconnected ‘system’ where events or changes in one area can influences changes in other areas or aspects. For example, excessive production of greenhouse gasses in one part of the world can impact other areas of the world.

2.     Acidifying of water as the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reacts with water to form carbonic acid.

3.     Changes in regional climate systems can lead to droughts, water shortages, rising sea levels, flooding, more intense fires, melting glaciers and ice caps at the poles and in mountains, increased severity of storms, heatwaves, wildfires, changes in precipitation, a decline in biodiversity, and rising temperatures on land and in the oceans.

4.     Climate Change is shifting our local ecosystems. Our warming climate leads to > changes to our physical environment > these physical changes affect the conditions that support the living ecosystems. The geographical ranges in which certain habitat types have been historically found is shifting due to the changes in local climate conditions. Global warming is affecting the timing of seasons, plant bloom times, changes in the length of growing seasons, frost dates, etc. This:

A.    Can expand or decrease habitats

B.    Can expand or decrease species ranges

C.   Can increase invasive species which can lead to a decline in native species

D.   Can alter habitat composition

E.   Can change the availability of food resources for wildlife and interfere with the synchronization of pollinators with blooming plants they pollinate within an ecosystem.

Consequences of climate change to us:

Lake Erie beach near where we live

1.     Health – through the increase in pest related diseases and a decrease in air quality, for example.

2.     Agriculture – to be discussed in more detail in the next blog post

3.     Housing – climate change is destroying homes through floods, more frequent or intense hurricanes and tornadoes, wildfires, and rising sea levels in coastal areas.

4.     Work – with increased global temperatures, there has been an increase in heat related illnesses for those who work outdoors or in indoor conditions that lack sufficient air conditioning or access to ways to properly hydrate.

5.     Displacement due to an increase in extreme weather-related events such as floods and storms.

6.     Poorer water quality in some areas through actions such as increased algal blooms and sewer overflows (Lake Erie is impacted by both).

We’ve examined what climate change is and how it affects the environment within which we live, work, and play. We’ve touched on how the changes to the environment and its habitats are resulting in shifting of the ecosystems around us. In the second half of this blog, we’ll review how the changes in our local climate could impact our ability to grow food in the future.

             In the meantime, explore the resources below for more detailed information on the topic of climate change.

 Resources

United Nations. (n.d.). What is Climate Change? https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change

NASA. (n.d.). What is Climate Change? https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/what-is-climate-change/ Accessed May 17, 2024.

NASA. (n.d.) What is in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change. https://gpm.nasa.gov/education/articles/whats-name-global-warming-vs-climate-change . Accessed May 19, 2024

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). (n.d.). The Sun and Climate Change. UCAR, Center for Science Education. https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/sun-space-weather/sun-and-climate-change#:~:text=How%20Does%20the%20Sun%20Influence,the%20tilt%20of%20its%20axis). Accessed May 21, 2024.

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). (n.d.). Effects of Climate Change on Ecology. UCAR, Center for Science Education. https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/ecology#:~:text=Climate%20change%20causes%20shifts%20in%20ecosystems.&text=Slight%20changes%20in%20temperature%20are,season%20for%20plants%20and%20trees. Accessed June 4, 2024

Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). (August 2016). What Climate Change Means for Ohio. https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/climate-change-oh.pdf Accessed June 4, 2024.

Buis, A. (December 2011). Climate Change may bring big ecosystem changes. NASA. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/645/climate-change-may-bring-big-ecosystem-changes/ . Accessed June 4, 2024.

Moore, A. (August 2021). 5 Ways Climate Change Impacts Forests. From droughts and wildfires to pests and pathogens, climate change is wreaking havoc on the world’s forests. North Carolina (NC) State University. https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2021/08/5-climate-change-impacts-forests/ Accessed June 4, 2024.

History.com editors. (June 2023). Climate Change History. The History Channel. https://www.history.com/topics/natural-disasters-and-environment/history-of-climate-change. Accessed June 5, 2024.  

United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). (July 2023). Greenhouse Gases: What are the trends in greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations and their impacts on human health and the environment. https://www.epa.gov/report-environment/greenhouse-gases#:~:text=Greenhouse%20gases%2C%20such%20as%20carbon,retaining%20heat%20in%20the%20atmosphere. Accessed June 9, 2024

NASA. (n.d). What do volcanoes have to do with climate change? https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/what-do-volcanoes-have-to-do-with-climate-change/ Accessed June 9, 2024.

World Wildlife Fund (WWF) (n.d.). Fight climate change by preventing food waste. https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/fight-climate-change-by-preventing-food-waste . Accessed June 10, 2024.